Nonito Donaire v Vic Darchinyan - Dinner is served

"So what happens? He gets the title shot outdoors on the ballpark and what do I get? A one-way ticket to Palooka-ville!"

Terry Malloy - On the Waterfront (1954)

The fortunes of Nonito Donaire and Guillermo Rigondeaux have varied wildly since Rigo dissected Donaire in Radio City Music Hall in New York in April earlier this year.

Prior to the fight, Donaire was one of the more favoured fighters in the sport; on many commentators top 5 pound for pound lists and possessing one of the most hellacious left hooks in any weight division. For your proof just take a look at The Ring Magazine Knock Out of the Year award. Donaire's left hook is one of the few punches to have two entries on that list.

Unfortunately one punch is not enough against a defensive wizard like Rigo, who popped in and out of range with ease and defeated Donaire comfortably in what some would call a deeply technical chess match, and others struggle to remember as they fell asleep somewhere along the way.

Donaire appeared unfocused, and much softer around the middle than in previous outings. He was possibly distracted by the arrival of a new child.

So unlike Brando in On the Waterfront, who took a dive for the short end money and ended up in Palooka-ville, Rigo has managed to somehow find himself on the same train after blacking the eye and the record of one of Top Rank's biggest stars.

And Donaire? He has a rematch with Vic Darchinyann headlining on HBO, 6 years after he announced himself by defeating the based Armenian in 2007. 

We already have an absolute career highlight from their first meeting, so we really need to see it again? Nobody flicking through their cable channels is probably going to complain about seeing a repeat, but not unlike his fight vs Jorge Arce, there is little scope for the upset in this one.

Related Links

Donaire-Darchinyan rematch announced for November 9th http://www.boxingscene.com/donaire-darchinyan-rematch-complete-nov-9--69145

Scott Christ of Bad Left Hook weighs up the problems faced by Top Rank in promoting Rigo. Super skilled, but so far unmarketable. http://www.badlefthook.com/2013/4/14/4222890/donaire-vs-rigondeaux-results-commentary-selling-guillermo-arum-promoter-dilemma-hbo-boxing

Lucas Matthysse - Can anybody stop 'The Machine?'

Lucas Matthysse has been high on hardcore boxing fans radars for many years, but as with his fellow heavy-hitters Gennady Golovkin and Sergei Kovalev, he's had a breakout year in 2013.

And so we come to the mouthwatering unification fight between 'The Machine' and Danny Garcia, the chief support on the Mayweather-Alvarez fight on September 14th. This fight (and the headliner) is a rare thing; a fight between two legitimately top fighters that has happened rather swiftly with minimal hyping, talking, postponing or build-up. There was no need for 'marinating' the fight, as good old Uncle Bob Arum liked to say about the megafight that never was between Lopez and Gamboa in 2009.

This is a feast being served up at just the right time. And while Matthysse may well find himself exposed against a slick boxer who can fight from the outside and move in and out for a full 12 rounds (don't be surprised if he is one of Floyd's final 4 opponents on his Showtime deal), Danny Garcia is not that man.

Matthysse, like many ferocious one punch KO artists, generates his power from vicious hooks launched from mid-range. He torques his torso so violently, that when he misses he can sometimes end up flat on his backside.

For those who think that Matthysse has upped his game considerably since his 'losses' (the term can be used rather loosely here judging by public opinion) against Zab Judah and Devon Alexander, just check out the first round of his recent destruction of Lamont Peterson. The KO-2 victory can tempt us to overlook what actually happened before crushing left hook that slammed Peterson hard to the canvas.

Just watch the first round. Does Matthysse look like an elite fighter? How many of his punches are landing? And not only that, how many of his medium range, lunging hooks miss by a country mile? Peterson sees them coming, and simply steps back, or checks his own offense and leaves Matthysse embarrassingly open.

So I forsee Lucas coming unstuck against someone who could dodge the barrage and perfectly time a counter. And yet, I don't see that man being Danny Garcia.

Garcia has a good history of huge counter lefts. Just watch his Amir Khan fight, we all know how that ended. Look at the thunderous left hook that ended the relevance of Erik Morales' comeback, literally spinning him round 180 degrees into the ropes. Garcia could feasibly step back and drop Matthysse with another one of these 'perfect punches.'

The problem is; Garcia will have to survive a barrage or two himself before he gets his timing down. Don't forget, Amir Khan was battering Danny Garcia in the opening rounds. He had multiple cuts, and was continuously tagged by Khan's flashy combos. Khan is blessed with preternatural speed, but not with enough punching power to back it up. Garcia could take the punishment for a long time before the fight could be stopped on cuts or due to a sustained beating, like the Khan-Malignaggi fight.

Garcia cannot afford to employ such a masochistic strategy when stepping in with the Argentinian. Garcia is astoundingly slow at times, both in speed of hand and speed of foot. But say what you like, Garcia is undefeated and is one of those fighters who seemingly always finds a way to win. But can he take a full blooded shot from a fighter on a roll with a 32KOs from 34 victories? I don't think any light-welter could.

Judah and Alexander survived Garcia by simply avoiding being hit flush from mid-range too often. Is Garcia the type of fighter capable of such a disciplined defensive performance? So far in his career of 26 fights, he hasn't been. There is no reason to believe he will suddenly change his style.

Related Links

Post-fight analysis of Matthysse v Peterson by Richard Dwyer of gamblersadvisory.com http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1i8jTaGMgz8

Great piece on the underrated technique of Matthysse in the Peterson fight. Although again, I'd say just go and watch the first round and see just how frequently he misses.
http://www.thesweetscience.com/news/articles-frontpage/16671-how-he-did-it-underrated-technician-matthysse-not-just-a-bomber

Mayweather vs Canelo - Don't be fooled by the size of the bull, the matador always wins

So we are but a couple of weekends away from the largest fight of this or any recent year, when Floyd Mayweather risks his undefeated record against much-fancied Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez.

It's an easy fight to promote, and even the casual fan can buy into the narrative of the wily, experienced champion vs the young pretender.

As we focus on the record takings at the gate, or probably a record number of PPV buys, the differences in weight and size, it is quite possible to overlook the most obvious question:

Who is going to win the fight?

Look, there can be no doubt that Saul Alvarez has a puncher's chance in this fight. The guy hits hard; just look at what his piston straight right did to Austin Trout, a physically bigger fighter than Canelo who had never touched the canvas before.

But don't put your money on a puncher's chance against the greatest fighter of his generation. In almost any world title fight, no matter how mismatched, the underdog will usually be capable of hitting that one shot that could cause the upset. Most fighters don't rise to that level in the sport without possessing at least a little pop. (Well, not Paulie Malignaggi)

Look down Mayweather's resume; most fighters had enough punching power to stop Floyd. How many times in the past decade have we seen him truly in trouble? How many times in the last decade have we seen him caught with clean punches?

My answer would be once, in the second round of his fight with Shane Mosley. Check out the clip, savor it, because those are really the only two punches that have truly troubled Floyd in the past century. For someone who had never really taken such a shot, he grabbed hold of Mosley's booming right, or clinched as he weathered the storm.

So, other than landing a perfect shot, how else can Canelo win this fight?

Canelo is not going to win this fight by outworking Floyd Mayweather. Canelo has historically low punch output; and when I say low, I mean the guy simply does not fight for 3 minutes of every round. He takes breaks.

Floyd also is not a volume puncher; but Mayweather is the most accurate puncher of any fighter in recent memory. It is not bravado when Money goes on a self-congratulatory diatribe, the stats back it up.

Canelo is not going to out-punch Mayweather. Canelo is not going to out-land Mayweather either. These things will simply just not happen.

What about movement? Can Canelo stalk his opponent, cut off the ring and walk him down until he can land the straight right hand?

Again, I just can't see this happening. We have seen more than enough of Mayweather to know he can fight just as comfortably in the middle of the ring as on the ropes. Look at the De La Hoya fight, or the Cotto fight, or look at the first few rounds before the bizarre ending of the Victor Ortiz fight.

When De La Hoya drives Mayweather back to the ropes, and the crowd cheer with every imagined blow, they might as well be shouting "Ole!" as Floyd ducks and dodges as Oscar gives

Mayweather will happily stand in the pocket, in front of a very heavy hitter, and twist and roll away from one barrage after another. It can be deceptive; when the punches are coming in that fast, it can look like some are hitting their mark, but when you go back again and watch the tape, slow it down, you'll see the truth.

As Mayweather weaves hypnotically infront of his foe, the blows are glancing off elbows, being absorbed by his high shoulders, and the rare glove that manages to find its way to his skull is allowed only the briefest kiss before he has limboed his way out of danger once more.

I'll watch some more Canelo fights in the coming weeks, but right now for me, he's carrying only a puncher's chance. If he can't find the target, no matter how hard he hits, the end result will be all too familiar.

"The harder I practice, the luckier I get"

On his recent publicity tour of China to promote his upcoming bout with Brandon Rios, Manny Pacquiao commented on the devastating KO punch that had floored him so shockingly in his last fight in the quadrology with his nemesis Juan Manuel Marquez. He said:

"I think Marquez just got lucky, he got lucky in that fight."

The notion of the 'lucky punch' is one that comes up frequently in boxing, spilling forth not only in blogs like my own, or from the comments below the line, but also from the commentators, the trainers and even the fighters themselves. Well, the defeated ones anyway.

I've seen people go back and forth over the value of a single punch in a fight. They link to clips, GIFs, still photos, covering multiple angles, dissecting it frame by frame, not unlike Jim Harrison pondering just what happened over there on the grassy knoll.

"He has his eyes closed!" they thunder. "It was just not fair."

Of course, I understand why fighters say this, why Pacquiao would be loathe to say "He just beat me fair and square."* If you're trying to position yourself as the best in the sport, and on the all time great list, a 'lucky shot' could amount to merely an asterisk on a glittering resume that oozes quality all the way from a 2001 IBF Super Bantamweight shot against Lehlo Ledwaba, up to his physical limit at Light-Middleweight when he crushed Antonio Margarito's orbital bone, along with his future career in the sport.

I saw similar accusations of luck hurled at Sergio Martinez for cracking a chin that was thought to be uncrackable, or at Danny Garcia for poleaxing a guy several fans feel would be felled by a particularly stiff wind.

Next time someone throws this lazy accusation out there, there's a simple solution. Watch the fight again. Danny Garcia was loading up on huge counter lefts all night vs Khan, even as Khan sliced and diced his face over the opening 2 rounds. He had a plan, he had faith in it; this was not a man swinging for the fences.

Ditto Juan Manuel Marquez. Watch the fight again. As Pacquiao roared back from his knock down and was chasing Marquez from corner to corner, and adding layer after layer of blood that was gushing from Marquez' broken nose, he still had a plan. He still had faith.

You have a world class, veteran fighter, throwing a looping overhand right that had already sent his opponent to the canvas in an earlier round.

In the end, it reached it's target with the pinpoint accuracy of an Olympic archer.

These are not 'lucky punches.' They're perfect.

---





*To be fair to Manny, he was mainly complimentary and gracious in defeat after losing to Marquez, saying "I have no excuses."

“You were sick, but now you're well again, and there's work to do.”

A few days after his shocking loss to Jhonny Gonzalez, Abner Mares was all set to sit out the remaining months of 2013, taking a well earned break after swiftly assembling one of the toughest resumes in the sport.

But today, stories emerge that Mares has had a swift change of heart, and instead of putting his feet up on the beach recuperating with his friends and family and enjoying the holiday season with its myriad of dietary delights that would make ever strength and fitness contender, Mr. Mares is ready to get back on the horse and step straight back into action with his old sparring partner.

Is this wise? In all honesty, it's difficult to tell. The things is learned from the all too brief Mares-Gonzalez I (as it can now be called) were that:

1. Jhonny Gonzales could, can and will for a long time be able to knockout anybody in or around his weight class.

2. Abner Mares is a human being, and when hit absolutely flush by a fighter with 47 KOs, he gets put on queer street like everybody else. The fact he got up is a credit to his chin.

These are probably things a lot of more knowledgeable people than I knew before the fight; we didn't need to see it to believe it, no matter how shocking a loss it was. (It's certainly the frontrunner for Upset of the Year right now)

The difficulties with over analyzing first round flash KO victories is that we don't learn too much in those few minutes. Abner Mares and Jhonny Gonzalez are former sparring partners, they have a history, they know each other, they respect each other, and will have both prepared hoping to exploit the weakness in the other man.

Abner Mares did not get a chance to show what he worked at in his training camp, to execute a game plan that has been in genesis in the back of his mind for years.

This is as strong a reason to step into the ring with his foe again, as much as a need for vengeance, or as much as the prideful reflex that is hard-wired into the psyche of all great competitors, whether they are fighters or ballplayers or monopoly fiends.

Is it wise? It's really a question I can't answer until the 2nd, 3rd, 4th round when we see what Mares has up his sleeve.

Is it admirable? Undoubtedly.

"Look around. There are no enemies here. There's just good, old-fashioned rivalry."

So rumours have begun to suggest that a 'Battle of Brooklyn' will take place on the undercard of Khan-Alexander, as Paulie Malignaggi and Zab Judah will face off on December 7th.

On the face of things, it could be tempting to say 'Hey, they're both coming off losses, who gives a shit!' as I'm sure many commenters below the cut will be too quick to point out.

Such thinking is brainless.

This would be a interesting, well-matched, well-promoted meaningful fight for both fighters. While Judah is coming off a loss to still unbeaten Danny Garcia, he showed that he was no longer the Tin Man in search of a heart, as he dragged himself up off the canvas to roar back and give as good as he got in the championship rounds.

Malignaggi was the sacrificial lamb who was meant to be steamrolled by the Adrien Broner express, but instead stood firm and while he did not derail the hype train that follows 'The Problem,' he looked impressive as he threw a spanner in the works, lasting the 12 rounds and being understandably miffed that he didn't manage to get at least a draw on the cards.

A loss is a loss. In every sport, almost all players and all teams lose, and lose on a regular basis. Boxing is different, and one loss can amount to the end of a career in some eyes. Not only in the glare of fickle fans, but the fighters themselves can question the desire to go on once their elusive 0 has been stripped from their record. 

If Malignaggi and Judah were coming off of wins against no-name opposition, would this fight be more mouth-watering? 

No.

Let's see what two guys who just overperformed in tight losses do against each other, both hungry to add one of those final digits onto their win column. The loss column is not so important; just ask Jhonny Gonzalez.

“And though you think the world is at your feet, it can rise up and tread on you.”

Seth Mitchell and Chris Arreola will be teeing off on each other in a few weeks, and the general consensus online seems to be towards a fairly one-sided victory.

Arreola is (again) motivated with (again) a point to prove. He is what he is. A damn fun to watch heavyweight, with the body of a modern heavyweight.

To the outside viewer who will see these two fighters stood side by side at the weigh-in their could be no doubt as to the winner: Who are you picking? The chiseled Hercules with the freshly buzzed dome, or the chubby guy whose whose nose looks like it must've been broken damn in every single one of his 35 contests? Looks can be deceiving.

Arreola is a fighter by heart, by nature. Mitchell is a hell of an athlete, but there lies the difference.

As one of the burgeoning trend of Heavies who have segued late into boxing via other sporting pursuits, he bears the same massive athletic advantages and the same pugilistic deficiencies. A blown up Cruiserweight in Jonathon Banks was able to calmly step back from the Mitchell express train, clip him with a left, and derail his career progress right there and then.

Although Mitchell won a tepid rematch with Banks, he had already done his damage. He'd placed a glowing red target above his head, or perhaps a rotating neon dollar sign.

While plenty of heavies may be wary to step into the firing line of Deontay Wilder's outrageously powerful overhand right, many would jump at the chance to chop down the former Wolverine football player.

Arreola should stop this one, and stop this one early. Mitchell is committed to the sport, and he is not taking any easy touches. After Banks got to him, many a lesser man would've packed up his bags and found something else to do for a living, like Nathan Cleverly is currently contemplating and he has been a full-time boxer since his teens.

So in 5 years time, I hope Mitchell is doing well for himself on another adventure, and I'm sure Arreola will be motivated again for one last run at the title.