So we are but a couple of weekends away from the largest fight of this or any recent year, when Floyd Mayweather risks his undefeated record against much-fancied Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez.
It's an easy fight to promote, and even the casual fan can buy into the narrative of the wily, experienced champion vs the young pretender.
As we focus on the record takings at the gate, or probably a record number of PPV buys, the differences in weight and size, it is quite possible to overlook the most obvious question:
Who is going to win the fight?
Look, there can be no doubt that Saul Alvarez has a puncher's chance in this fight. The guy hits hard; just look at what his piston straight right did to Austin Trout, a physically bigger fighter than Canelo who had never touched the canvas before.
But don't put your money on a puncher's chance against the greatest fighter of his generation. In almost any world title fight, no matter how mismatched, the underdog will usually be capable of hitting that one shot that could cause the upset. Most fighters don't rise to that level in the sport without possessing at least a little pop. (Well, not Paulie Malignaggi)
Look down Mayweather's resume; most fighters had enough punching power to stop Floyd. How many times in the past decade have we seen him truly in trouble? How many times in the last decade have we seen him caught with clean punches?
My answer would be once, in the second round of his fight with Shane Mosley. Check out the clip, savor it, because those are really the only two punches that have truly troubled Floyd in the past century. For someone who had never really taken such a shot, he grabbed hold of Mosley's booming right, or clinched as he weathered the storm.
So, other than landing a perfect shot, how else can Canelo win this fight?
Canelo is not going to win this fight by outworking Floyd Mayweather. Canelo has historically low punch output; and when I say low, I mean the guy simply does not fight for 3 minutes of every round. He takes breaks.
Floyd also is not a volume puncher; but Mayweather is the most accurate puncher of any fighter in recent memory. It is not bravado when Money goes on a self-congratulatory diatribe, the stats back it up.
Canelo is not going to out-punch Mayweather. Canelo is not going to out-land Mayweather either. These things will simply just not happen.
What about movement? Can Canelo stalk his opponent, cut off the ring and walk him down until he can land the straight right hand?
Again, I just can't see this happening. We have seen more than enough of Mayweather to know he can fight just as comfortably in the middle of the ring as on the ropes. Look at the De La Hoya fight, or the Cotto fight, or look at the first few rounds before the bizarre ending of the Victor Ortiz fight.
When De La Hoya drives Mayweather back to the ropes, and the crowd cheer with every imagined blow, they might as well be shouting "Ole!" as Floyd ducks and dodges as Oscar gives
Mayweather will happily stand in the pocket, in front of a very heavy hitter, and twist and roll away from one barrage after another. It can be deceptive; when the punches are coming in that fast, it can look like some are hitting their mark, but when you go back again and watch the tape, slow it down, you'll see the truth.
As Mayweather weaves hypnotically infront of his foe, the blows are glancing off elbows, being absorbed by his high shoulders, and the rare glove that manages to find its way to his skull is allowed only the briefest kiss before he has limboed his way out of danger once more.
I'll watch some more Canelo fights in the coming weeks, but right now for me, he's carrying only a puncher's chance. If he can't find the target, no matter how hard he hits, the end result will be all too familiar.
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