Lucas Matthysse has been high on hardcore boxing fans radars for many years, but as with his fellow heavy-hitters Gennady Golovkin and Sergei Kovalev, he's had a breakout year in 2013.
And so we come to the mouthwatering unification fight between 'The Machine' and Danny Garcia, the chief support on the Mayweather-Alvarez fight on September 14th. This fight (and the headliner) is a rare thing; a fight between two legitimately top fighters that has happened rather swiftly with minimal hyping, talking, postponing or build-up. There was no need for 'marinating' the fight, as good old Uncle Bob Arum liked to say about the megafight that never was between Lopez and Gamboa in 2009.
This is a feast being served up at just the right time. And while Matthysse may well find himself exposed against a slick boxer who can fight from the outside and move in and out for a full 12 rounds (don't be surprised if he is one of Floyd's final 4 opponents on his Showtime deal), Danny Garcia is not that man.
Matthysse, like many ferocious one punch KO artists, generates his power from vicious hooks launched from mid-range. He torques his torso so violently, that when he misses he can sometimes end up flat on his backside.
For those who think that Matthysse has upped his game considerably since his 'losses' (the term can be used rather loosely here judging by public opinion) against Zab Judah and Devon Alexander, just check out the first round of his recent destruction of Lamont Peterson. The KO-2 victory can tempt us to overlook what actually happened before crushing left hook that slammed Peterson hard to the canvas.
Just watch the first round. Does Matthysse look like an elite fighter? How many of his punches are landing? And not only that, how many of his medium range, lunging hooks miss by a country mile? Peterson sees them coming, and simply steps back, or checks his own offense and leaves Matthysse embarrassingly open.
So I forsee Lucas coming unstuck against someone who could dodge the barrage and perfectly time a counter. And yet, I don't see that man being Danny Garcia.
Garcia has a good history of huge counter lefts. Just watch his Amir Khan fight, we all know how that ended. Look at the thunderous left hook that ended the relevance of Erik Morales' comeback, literally spinning him round 180 degrees into the ropes. Garcia could feasibly step back and drop Matthysse with another one of these 'perfect punches.'
The problem is; Garcia will have to survive a barrage or two himself before he gets his timing down. Don't forget, Amir Khan was battering Danny Garcia in the opening rounds. He had multiple cuts, and was continuously tagged by Khan's flashy combos. Khan is blessed with preternatural speed, but not with enough punching power to back it up. Garcia could take the punishment for a long time before the fight could be stopped on cuts or due to a sustained beating, like the Khan-Malignaggi fight.
Garcia cannot afford to employ such a masochistic strategy when stepping in with the Argentinian. Garcia is astoundingly slow at times, both in speed of hand and speed of foot. But say what you like, Garcia is undefeated and is one of those fighters who seemingly always finds a way to win. But can he take a full blooded shot from a fighter on a roll with a 32KOs from 34 victories? I don't think any light-welter could.
Judah and Alexander survived Garcia by simply avoiding being hit flush from mid-range too often. Is Garcia the type of fighter capable of such a disciplined defensive performance? So far in his career of 26 fights, he hasn't been. There is no reason to believe he will suddenly change his style.
Related Links
Post-fight analysis of Matthysse v Peterson by Richard Dwyer of gamblersadvisory.com http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1i8jTaGMgz8
Great piece on the underrated technique of Matthysse in the Peterson fight. Although again, I'd say just go and watch the first round and see just how frequently he misses.
http://www.thesweetscience.com/news/articles-frontpage/16671-how-he-did-it-underrated-technician-matthysse-not-just-a-bomber
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