Sunday 6 October 2013

Miguel Cotto v Delvin Rodriguez - There are levels

This could be the start of a beautiful friendship. Miguel Cotto added another 1 to his W column last night, as his new partnership with future hall of fame trainer Freddie Roach got off to an impressive start, stopping Delvin Rodriguez after 3 one sided rounds.

Cotto handled his comeback opponent with ease, much to the delight of the fellow Puerto ricans in the 11,000 strong crowd that had come out to support him in Orlando for the first time.

Stopping a guy who has only been stopped once is impressive, especially when taking into account Miguel Cotto's size disadvantage. Cotto pounded away at the body with his trademark left hook, and slowly but surely Rodriguez began to sag in the middle and was nearly taken out in the final seconds of the 2nd stanza, and the bell merely allowed him 1 minute sat on his stool to delay the inevitable.

Let's be clear; Delvin Rodriguez is not a world class fighter, but he's not a bum. Contrary to many fight fans beliefs, there are some fighters who operate somewhere between those two levels. Rodriguez is solid, he lasts. He had an absolute war with Pavel Wolak and then handled him with ease in the rematch of their fight of the year. Like Cotto, he lost a decision to Austin Trout at 154lbs.

In a win or go home type of fight, Cotto won and won big. Instead of retirement, he now has a great deal of choice where to go next, and can feasibly plan out a spectacular fight or two to cap off a career that has seen him take on most of the great fighters of his generation. Malignaggi, Judah, Mosley, Margarito (twice), Pacquiao and Mayweather. And under closer examination, he faced most of those fighters when they were firing on all cylinders and close to their peaks.

So in his last couple of fights who will Miguel face? Will he continue facing peak level opposition, or fight a fighter with a name and a diminishing reputation?

Monday 30 September 2013

Chavez Jr. Vs Vera - Another Weekend, Another Robbery.

The coldly anticipated farce between Julio Cesar Chavez Jr and Brian Vera delivered us yet another fraudulent decision this weekend.

Anyone who does not think the sport of boxing is crooked, then well, I mean does anyone actually not think it's bent? Anybody?

Chavez Jr were scheduled to fight at 160lbs when the fight was announced. The fight was eventually moved up a full weight class to Super Middleweight at 168lbs, as fight drew closer. By the time the fight started on Saturday night in Carson, California, both men had 'agreed' to a 173lb weight limit.

There were swathes of empty seats, which was pointed out by the commentators on the telecast. The reasons are obvious. When you have a fighter who began campaigning at super featherweight, who is now a full 40 lbs or more heavier, you question the validity of the event your seeing. Can it be elite level sport with such indiscipline?

The answer is no. Boxing is not elite, it's a niche sport that manages to throw up a couple of monstrous events a year from the fighters at the pinnacle. Below that, its a weird mixture of tough guys willingly surrendering their long term health for a few grand, and a hyped up chosen few who get to trouser 6 figure pay checks and win fights without winning them.

Vera was meant to lose, so he lost. That is the story of this fight. There's little point in analyzing it any deeper than that. Chavez was unconditioned and fought like it, throwing hard single shots every minute or so, while Vera jabbed and puffed up his already oversized face.

I dont understand. If they're going to rig a fight, then why not use a little bit of brain power and arrange the cards to be at least close. One of the fraudulent, corrupt judges managed to award Chavez 8 out of the 10 rounds. And this was a majority decision, with all 3 judges giving the nod to boxing's most famous and favoured son.

The excellent Bobby Hunter collated the media scorecards from this bout. There were 56 cards. 53 people picked Vera. 3 picked the draw. Nobody picked Chavez, he was 0 for 56. As opposed to 3 out of 3 from the professionally employed boxing judges.




Sunday 29 September 2013

Stevenson v Cloud

Another weekend, another robbery. I'll write on the Chavez Jr farce later, let's start with a proper fight from the previous weekend.

Adonis Stevenson continued his fine form, handily beating down Tavoris Cloud over 7 one sided rounds.

It was an impressively simple display of one-two punching, as Stevenson maintained his sideways stance ingrained in him from his days under the late Manny Steward at the Kronk Gym. He was disciplined, patient and chose his shots, but was equally quick to jump on Cloud when he was hurt; Stevenson damaged Cloud's eye early and unleashed an impressive barage as soon as he smelled blood, whether following up a thudding shot up top or taking advantage of a crumbling Cloud who was hurt to the body at several points.

Stevenson is never going to be a hugely popular, crossover star. Firstly he is 36, and though he looks in fine shape and has taken little punishment over the years, his only loss coming via quick KO from the mythical gatekeeper Darnell Boone, he is enjoying potentially a few years of relevance in the Light heavyweight division.

Secondly, his more than chequered past is not going to do him any favors either; but after watching the fight take place at the Bell Center in Montreal, and seeing how vociferously eager the crowd were to chant out 'Superman! Superman!' it reminds me that literally any sin can be forgiven, as long as you are good at throwing a ball, singing a tune, or punching a guy in the face.

Since the Golden Boy - Top rank feud split into the Showtime - HBO battle we are currently reaping the rewards of, HBO Boxing has taken a hit and it has invested a lot of time and money in someone like Andre Ward, who is currently endearing the fans with his arrogant, paint drying turns as a color commentator as opposed to any kind of fistic genius. Once Mayweather, Broner et al jumped across to Showtime, HBO has been left looking for stars. They've found some from outside North America, like Golovkin and Kovalev, but Adonis Stevenson is as exciting as any other world champion on their roster right now.

He fights with the right balance of patience and risk, and hopefully will continue dispatching opponents to set-up a unification fight with Sergei Kovalev in front of the fans in Montreal again. That would be one of the bigger events of late 2014 if it's promoted correctly.

Saturday 14 September 2013

Mayweather v Canelo - Prediction

Don't have time to write extensively on this unfortunately as I would have loved to, but I'll stick my neck out for what it's worth.

Prediction - Mayweather is just too far above Canelo's level of competition. Trout was good, but he is the true standout name on a deceptively thin resume. That's not to say Canelo is not a legitimate talent. It's a case of far too soon, and at the wrong weight

After seeing how dried out Canelo appeared at the weigh-in, I'm increasingly tempted to suggest Mayweather could force a late stoppage, probably due to an accumulation of shots and Canelo just being too damn tired due to weight drain, and the mental and physical fatigue of his straight right hand not landing all night. But Canelo is younger, and will go out on his shield before quitting and his corner does not seem like the kind to throw in the towel, so Mayweather by a clear UD, pulling away after a few tense opening rounds.

Thursday 12 September 2013

Garcia v Matthysse - Prediction

"Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the mouth." Mike Tyson


While 'The One' is the fight most sports fans are looking forward to this weekend, the B-side of this PPV card is probably the one that has hardcore boxing fans salivating.

We have that rare fight, where the two best guys in a weight division are actually fighting each other. I know, I can't believe it either.

Whoever has their hand raised after that Garcia Matthysse fight will be undoubtedly the best fighter currently operating at 140 lbs, and will also be in prime position for a career high payday as one of Floyd Mayweather's next opponents.

Garcia is making the right noises. He says he's going to take away Matthysse's power. This is exactly how Matthysse will be beaten in the future. Think of Bernard Hopkins fighting Kelly Pavlik, or Antonio Tarver, or anybody. He works out a way to win, taking away his opponents strength with movement and footwork and spoiling and fouling.

As previously noted, in the first round of Matthysse's last fight, Lamont Peterson was doing a very good job of making Lucas miss by wide margins with his power shots, and making it look rather easy. If he could've kept up such a performance for more than 3 minutes, Matthysse would've undoubtedly begun to tire from wasting energy on thin air.

Danny Garcia has a dynamite counter left hook, that waxed Amir Khan and finished off Erik Morales in their rematch. Other than that, nothing about Garcia is flashy.

He is slow. So slow that in their first fight, a frankly fat and old Erik Morales took some time out at the start of the 9th round to make fun of him.

He gets hit. Amir Khan tagged Garcia repeatedly near the start of their fight and was pitching a shut out until Danny changed things with the left hook counter he had been committing to all night.

Such a strategy would be far too risky against the hard punching Argentine. Garcia cannot absorb these punches, and I don't think Garcia can even risk trading punches with Matthysse. There is just too big a differential in their power. Matthysse's medium range, lunging and looping hooks are Tyson-esque in their power, if not their accuracy.

Prediction: Having written on this subject a few weeks ago, it should be of no surprise that I'm going for Lucas Matthysse by KO. I just don't see Garcia being disciplined or slick enough to stay away from the big shots for 12 rounds, and if he decides to go to war early, expect an early finish. Garcia is smarter than that, so I would expect a finish somewhere in the middle rounds, 4-6.

Bet: The over-under total rounds to be Under 8.5 at odds of 4/5 with some bookmakers. Both fighters can bang, with Matthysse having a 86% KO percentage, and all but one of his 32 KO victims having been taken out inside 9 rounds. Similarly, all but 1 of Garcia's 16 KOs have occurred inside 9 rounds.

Tuesday 10 September 2013

De La Hoya Back in Rehab, Won't Be Ringside for Mayweather v Canelo

A paradoxical story broke today, with the shockingly unpredictable news that Oscar De La Hoya, Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez' promoter and chief hype man has been checked into rehab today, meaning he will miss being present at the fight that will probably break his own PPV record from many years ago.

Oscar has an unfortunate history of substance abuse problems that he talked about frankly the first time they were revealed, that were present in his later career and during the years since Manny Pacquiao sliced and diced him into retirement in 2008.

This is a boxing blog, so I have no wish to go into great detail on the issues of addiction and substance abuse. But, the timing of this, so close to the fight, would suggest to me that Oscar is having some very real and very serious problems; the cracks and fissures of his addiction couldn't be papered over for 4 or 5 more days and so the Golden Boy goes back into treatment once again.

This is a massive fight to miss. In a sport where promotion will always err on the side of outrageous hyperbole, the fight's moniker of 'The One' is fairly deserved right now. It's undoubtedly the biggest fight of this young decade, and it hasn't even happened yet. As my blog struggles along with 1 or 2 views a day in its infancy, I can tell you the pages that receive actual views invariably have Mayweather v Canelo in the title.

This is not a decision that could've been taken lightly, or perhaps even willingly.

It's an ongoing battle that blights the lives of many of the sports most illustrious fighters after they have finished their careers.

If boxing is heroin, then the methadone substitute for fighting usually involves becoming a promoter, or trainer, or pundit, or all three. If these morsels of reflected glory do not surfice, then take lots and lots of drugs.

In the UK, Ricky Hatton had a cocaine expose. Joe Calzaghe also. Frank Bruno was sectioned at one point, and was sleeping in his back garden in the ring that he had retained from one of his previous title fights. Only last week, Mike Tyson claimed to be on the brink of death and declared his recent 6 days of sobriety a miracle.

It raises questions to which I have no answer. Are these men risk takers for life? Searching for another high? Damaged by the sport? Or always damaged, and looking for more? Numbing the pain? I don't know.

These men were superstars, and once they have stepped (or have been carried) out of the ring for one last time, they don't suddenly become nobodies overnight. Iron Mike must have people talking boxing with him every hour of every day he is out in public. There's only so many photos you can take with a clinched fist raised robotically beneath your chin.

Which makes you wonder how the journeymen get on once they have hung up the gloves. If you are a tomato can, an opponent hired to be knocked unconscious on a monthly basis , how do you feel when it's all over? Relieved? Probably not.

Tooposhtopunch wishes Oscar a speedy recovery, and hope he will be back at ringside with his unique blend of off-the-wall pre-fight hype as soon as possible.

Monday 9 September 2013

Sergio Martinez to return in April or May 2014, in Argentina once more.

With the announcement that he plans to return with another fight in his homeland, don't read this any other way; the writing is on the wall for Sergio's career. We are entering the end days,

How does Sergio want to check out of the sport? He led a nomadic career from Argentina, to the UK, to Spain before finally seeing his star rise in the US

Sergio will be 39 years old the next time he laces up his gloves. He's coming off of surgery, after coming off of surgery. His body is betraying him, and with a unique style that is based upon awesome reflexes,  a dodgy knee is a death knell for Martinez' ability to compete at the top level.

The speculation has been that Sergio could end with one last megafight. He is contracted to neither Top Rank or Golden Boy, so has leeway in picking hiss opponent. Although he has built a career on HBO, if he were to jump ship to Showtime for a final farewell that would not be a massive surprise, nor one that many could begrudge him. Fighters primetime, moneymaking years can usually be counted on one hand.

A rematch with Chavez Jr? I don't think so. Martinez remains a small middleweight, whereas Chavez looks set to move up to 160lbs and be fed to Andre Ward at some point in the not too distinct future.

Floyd Mayweather? Martinez has claimed in the past he would drop weight for that fight, but at 39 years old, with all he's been through in the ring, will he be willing to drain himself for one last admittedly huge payday, on top of the surgeries he is trying to overcome? I doubt it, though I'm sure would like that fight more and more these days.

The most realistic option is Gennady Golovkin, who has hardcore boxing fans drooling with his shuddering power; even his jab looks like it hurts his opponents. Does 39 year old Sergio Martinez want to end his career being KO'd by the new top dog in the division? As merely a stepping stone in piling a few more passengers onto the Golovkin hype train? Probably not.

If he fights in Argentina again, don't expect much in terms of an opponent. Last time out, Martin Murray was chosen as the lamb to the slaughter, but he forgot to read the script and knocked down Martinez and arguably won the fight. Expect a much safe pick this time.

Presuming comes through that unscathed, I would see his career ending with a title fight, with the weakest challenger available. Darren Barker just won his first world title against Daniel Geale, and would be a tempting pick for Martinez and his promoter Lou DiBella if he can defend his belt.

Enjoy it while you can, as 2014 will be the last in Sergio's career.

Arreola v Mitchell

So the American Heavyweight match-up between life-long boxer and ex collegiate football player ended in a KO-1 demolition to the boxer. Who'd have thunk it?

The perennially "re-focused" "serious" "no more messin' around" Arreola showed up, and patiently went to work at removing Seth Mitchell's head from his shoulders. Mitchell was saved from that fate by good refereeing, as it immediately became clear that the gulf in skills was so large that there was only one possible outcome.

I feel for Mitchell. Some people online seem to treat him with only disdain; how dare this man have dreams? How dare this man work hard and want to achieve a seemingly impossible dream of transitioning to another sport? How dare he try?

Offensively, he looked sharp enough in the few combinations he let go in the first minute. Solid jab and straight fight, it's what you would expect of a recent convert just trying his best. Mitchell's problems, and there are many which cannot be addressed now in this 30s, are a complete lack of defence, compounded by a near inability to take a punch.

Heavyweights hit hard. We know this. Any heavyweight can get knocked out by nearly any other heavyweight. Just look at the early KO losses on Wladimir Klitschko's resume and you'll see that he reacts the same way to any human who gets hit very hard by guy weighing 200-250lbs. He gets put to sleep.

But whereas a world class fighter like Wlad has experience and skills to fall back on to get him through the moments of doubt following another destruction, Seth Mitchell does not. He just has an emptying dressing room and his thoughts to comfort him as he ponders whether getting badly KO'd every few months is going to be a good way to make a living. Hopefully, he will see the light and forge a successful career elsewhere, in a sport that does not require him to have perfect knees (the reason for the demise of a promising Football career) or a resilient chin.

Arreola found himself yet again at a crossroads in his career, and he passed the test. He will fight on, and if he fights regularly he will be all the better for it. A rematch with Stiverne has been mooted, and one I would be happy to see. That was a legitimately good heavyweight fight the first time round; the sport could do with a few more of those.

Thursday 5 September 2013

Will Floyd Mayweather ever lace up his gloves on British shores?

Floyd Mayweather talks as good a game as he plays. So once more, the usual 'I would love to fight in the UK!' quotes are being touted around, the opponent usually nominated is Amir Khan, the venue an outdoor stadium such as the new Wembley in London.

This will never happen.

Just in case you missed it. This will never happen.

Firstly the MGM Grand has been a rather comfortable home for Floyd. He lives in Las Vegas. He trains in Las Vegas. His cars, his clothes, even his smile, they're all Las Vegas. He trousering a cool $41.5 million Las-Vegas sized check for his upcoming bout with Canelo.

Go take a look at Floyd's boxrec. Floyd's last fight was at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. As was the one before that. And so on. Floyd's last fight not in the MGM grand was a few hundred yards up the street at Madalay Bay Casino. You have to go back to 2006 to Oregon and the Sharmba Mitchell fight for his last venture away from The Strip.

Mayweather's nickname is Money, and it is his preferred moniker for a reason.

The UK introduced some very wacky, non-friendly tax laws back in the 2000s, that not only taxed the income that was generated by the athlete in the UK, but also taxed a percentage of the income that athlete made around the world during the rest of the year.*

That's right, the UK taxman decided it would be a good idea to tax foreign athletes, plying their trade in foreign countries, for having the nerve to bring their world class abilities to the UK and bring entertainment and happiness to the general public.

Andre Agassi tried to stand up to this boneheaded law. He lost. Usain Bolt avoids competing in the UK because of it, as I'm sure numerous others do. Top athletes see potential millions being flushed down the drain, and the middling professionals could see a career high payday in another country reduced after deciding to have a crack on the court at Wimbledon, on the course at The Open, or on the track at Crystal Palace.

Floyd has 4 fights left on his deal with Showtime after he has disposed of Canelo in a couple of weeks. Is there a possibility he may fight in another location. I would say the chances are remote, but it's not impossible.

But Money goes where money is. Dubai or Macau, or any other tax-free haven is your only shot of seeing Pretty Boy ply his trade outside of the New World. If I was Amir Khan or on his team, I'd start crunching the numbers and adding '...in Dubai' to the end of his monthly reminded that his marquee fight is just around the corner.

He lives there. He trains there. His family and friends live there. He gambles there. He makes insane amounts of money there. You don't have to be a bookie to work out the odds of where his next 4 fights will be taking place.


---

*The UK tax law is in relation to endorsements, which is a major source of most athlete's income. When last year Forbes listed Mayweather as the top earner in all of sport (which they will surely do again this year) his endorsement earnings were listed as $0.

Related Articles

Floyd to fight in the UK? - http://www.boxingscene.com/floyd-mayweather-consider-uk-shows-fight-2014--69297

Great account from British fighter Ashley Theophane, recently signed to TMT promotions, about what goes on in the Mayweather gym. -http://boxingnewsonline.net/latest/feature/ashley-theophane-delivers-fascinating-insight-into-life-inside-the-floyd-mayweather-gym  and http://www.boxingnewsonline.net/latest/feature/ashley-theophane-the-floyd-mayweather-gym-diaries

Sunday 1 September 2013

All Access Mayweather vs. Canelo Episode 2 - Review

"I'm not a fucking sparring partner...I'm Floyd Mayweather and I can fight. Boxing is an art. I don't have to be the strongest, I don't have to be the fastest, I don't need to have the best footwork, but I got the best mind. Like I always say, it's chess. I know how to win"

I will always enjoy a solidly put together piece on an upcoming fight. 24/7 on HBO, or All Access on Showtime - They are what they are. Essentially a 30 minute advert to try and convince you to spend an extra fifty or so bucks on a few hours of entertainment on a Saturday night. As I live outwith the US, I'm not their target, but I enjoy them all the same. The formula has begun to tire at times, but if you have a good fight with interesting and different characters, these shows serve their purpose well.

It opened with the smooth beats of I Need a Dollar by Aloe Blacc, which must've made its fair share of cash through ads and soundtracks. I hear it on shows multiple times every year.

As fight time approaches, Floyd has gone all-in on his 'Money' persona to best sell the fight and increase the buys. It will always be his default pitch when it comes to the crunch; and why shouldn't it be?

He's stacked an inordinate amount of bills since he switched from his Ali-esque 'Pretty Boy' Floyd days. Which tells me that people are much more likely to part with their hard-earned cash for the chance to see the richest man in all of sports suffer his first loss, than see an Adonis have his looks transfigured.

Canelo went off to Big Bear to "ready his body and soul" for the upcoming fight. I would personally prioritise the body, as the shedding of the final 2lbs to make the 152lb catchweight will probably be shed by some good old fashioned road work as opposed to some quiet meditation time.

Mayweather's weak hands got a showing, as he damaged his right hand in the Guerrero fight resulting in a nasty contusion between his knuckles. On his recent media workout, Mayweather was barely touching the bag and pads as he worked out in front of the cameras but I can't read too much into this. Come fight night he will let his hands go until they break again, which is why we see his rare stoppage victories come due to the demoralization of his opponents, not from any single jarring blow.

Meanwhile in Big Bear, Canelo the unstoppable machine is ripping the heads off his sparring partners and discarding of their carcasses somewhere in the woods, or something of that ilk. Of his 3 training partners, only 1 remains standing. One has fractured ribs (possible) and another a dislocated shoulder... (Come on! Anybody remember a fighter having their shoulder dislocated by a blow in any recent fight? There's been some notable heroics, but by a blow? Anybody?)

As the episode drew to a close, Mayweather parties with uncountable bottles of Rose, while Team Canelo sit and watch last week's shocking Jhonny Gonzalez victory over Abner Mares. The implication being, underdogs can win with just one shot.

Overall it was a solid episode that stuck to a tried and tested formula. This fight is not a hard sell to anyone. It will be the biggest fight of the year.

Related Links

Official link to the episode - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTRWXNd8ZJI

This is unofficial, for those like me outside the US who can't access the Showtime youtube channel. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K6QFpWJuo5A

Saturday 31 August 2013

Nonito Donaire v Vic Darchinyan - Dinner is served

"So what happens? He gets the title shot outdoors on the ballpark and what do I get? A one-way ticket to Palooka-ville!"

Terry Malloy - On the Waterfront (1954)


The fortunes of Nonito Donaire and Guillermo Rigondeaux have varied wildly since Rigo dissected Donaire in Radio City Music Hall in New York in April earlier this year.

Prior to the fight, Donaire was one of the more favoured fighters in the sport; on many commentators top 5 pound for pound lists and possessing one of the most hellacious left hooks in any weight division. For your proof just take a look at The Ring Magazine Knock Out of the Year award. Donaire's left hook is one of the few punches to have two entries on that list.

Unfortunately one punch is not enough against a defensive wizard like Rigo, who popped in and out of range with ease and defeated Donaire comfortably in what some would call a deeply technical chess match, and others struggle to remember as they fell asleep somewhere along the way.

Donaire appeared unfocused, and much softer around the middle than in previous outings. He was possibly distracted by the arrival of a new child.

So unlike Brando in On the Waterfront, who took a dive for the short end money and ended up in Palooka-ville, Rigo has managed to somehow find himself on the same train after blacking the eye and the record of one of Top Rank's biggest stars.

And Donaire? He has a rematch with Vic Darchinyann headlining on HBO, 6 years after he announced himself by defeating the based Armenian in 2007. 

We already have an absolute career highlight from their first meeting, so we really need to see it again? Nobody flicking through their cable channels is probably going to complain about seeing a repeat, but not unlike his fight vs Jorge Arce, there is little scope for the upset in this one.

Related Links

Donaire-Darchinyan rematch announced for November 9th http://www.boxingscene.com/donaire-darchinyan-rematch-complete-nov-9--69145

Scott Christ of Bad Left Hook weighs up the problems faced by Top Rank in promoting Rigo. Super skilled, but so far unmarketable. http://www.badlefthook.com/2013/4/14/4222890/donaire-vs-rigondeaux-results-commentary-selling-guillermo-arum-promoter-dilemma-hbo-boxing


Friday 30 August 2013

Lucas Matthysse - Can anybody stop 'The Machine?'

Lucas Matthysse has been high on hardcore boxing fans radars for many years, but as with his fellow heavy-hitters Gennady Golovkin and Sergei Kovalev, he's had a breakout year in 2013.

And so we come to the mouthwatering unification fight between 'The Machine' and Danny Garcia, the chief support on the Mayweather-Alvarez fight on September 14th. This fight (and the headliner) is a rare thing; a fight between two legitimately top fighters that has happened rather swiftly with minimal hyping, talking, postponing or build-up. There was no need for 'marinating' the fight, as good old Uncle Bob Arum liked to say about the megafight that never was between Lopez and Gamboa in 2009.

This is a feast being served up at just the right time. And while Matthysse may well find himself exposed against a slick boxer who can fight from the outside and move in and out for a full 12 rounds (don't be surprised if he is one of Floyd's final 4 opponents on his Showtime deal), Danny Garcia is not that man.

Matthysse, like many ferocious one punch KO artists, generates his power from vicious hooks launched from mid-range. He torques his torso so violently, that when he misses he can sometimes end up flat on his backside.

For those who think that Matthysse has upped his game considerably since his 'losses' (the term can be used rather loosely here judging by public opinion) against Zab Judah and Devon Alexander, just check out the first round of his recent destruction of Lamont Peterson. The KO-2 victory can tempt us to overlook what actually happened before crushing left hook that slammed Peterson hard to the canvas.

Just watch the first round. Does Matthysse look like an elite fighter? How many of his punches are landing? And not only that, how many of his medium range, lunging hooks miss by a country mile? Peterson sees them coming, and simply steps back, or checks his own offense and leaves Matthysse embarrassingly open.

So I forsee Lucas coming unstuck against someone who could dodge the barrage and perfectly time a counter. And yet, I don't see that man being Danny Garcia.

Garcia has a good history of huge counter lefts. Just watch his Amir Khan fight, we all know how that ended. Look at the thunderous left hook that ended the relevance of Erik Morales' comeback, literally spinning him round 180 degrees into the ropes. Garcia could feasibly step back and drop Matthysse with another one of these 'perfect punches.'

The problem is; Garcia will have to survive a barrage or two himself before he gets his timing down. Don't forget, Amir Khan was battering Danny Garcia in the opening rounds. He had multiple cuts, and was continuously tagged by Khan's flashy combos. Khan is blessed with preternatural speed, but not with enough punching power to back it up. Garcia could take the punishment for a long time before the fight could be stopped on cuts or due to a sustained beating, like the Khan-Malignaggi fight.

Garcia cannot afford to employ such a masochistic strategy when stepping in with the Argentinian. Garcia is astoundingly slow at times, both in speed of hand and speed of foot. But say what you like, Garcia is undefeated and is one of those fighters who seemingly always finds a way to win. But can he take a full blooded shot from a fighter on a roll with a 32KOs from 34 victories? I don't think any light-welter could.

Judah and Alexander survived Garcia by simply avoiding being hit flush from mid-range too often. Is Garcia the type of fighter capable of such a disciplined defensive performance? So far in his career of 26 fights, he hasn't been. There is no reason to believe he will suddenly change his style.

Related Links

Post-fight analysis of Matthysse v Peterson by Richard Dwyer of gamblersadvisory.com http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1i8jTaGMgz8

Great piece on the underrated technique of Matthysse in the Peterson fight. Although again, I'd say just go and watch the first round and see just how frequently he misses.
http://www.thesweetscience.com/news/articles-frontpage/16671-how-he-did-it-underrated-technician-matthysse-not-just-a-bomber

Mayweather vs Canelo - Don't be fooled by the size of the bull, the matador always wins

So we are but a couple of weekends away from the largest fight of this or any recent year, when Floyd Mayweather risks his undefeated record against much-fancied Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez.

It's an easy fight to promote, and even the casual fan can buy into the narrative of the wily, experienced champion vs the young pretender.

As we focus on the record takings at the gate, or probably a record number of PPV buys, the differences in weight and size, it is quite possible to overlook the most obvious question:

Who is going to win the fight?

Look, there can be no doubt that Saul Alvarez has a puncher's chance in this fight. The guy hits hard; just look at what his piston straight right did to Austin Trout, a physically bigger fighter than Canelo who had never touched the canvas before.

But don't put your money on a puncher's chance against the greatest fighter of his generation. In almost any world title fight, no matter how mismatched, the underdog will usually be capable of hitting that one shot that could cause the upset. Most fighters don't rise to that level in the sport without possessing at least a little pop. (Well, not Paulie Malignaggi)

Look down Mayweather's resume; most fighters had enough punching power to stop Floyd. How many times in the past decade have we seen him truly in trouble? How many times in the last decade have we seen him caught with clean punches?

My answer would be once, in the second round of his fight with Shane Mosley. Check out the clip, savor it, because those are really the only two punches that have truly troubled Floyd in the past century. For someone who had never really taken such a shot, he grabbed hold of Mosley's booming right, or clinched as he weathered the storm.

So, other than landing a perfect shot, how else can Canelo win this fight?

Canelo is not going to win this fight by outworking Floyd Mayweather. Canelo has historically low punch output; and when I say low, I mean the guy simply does not fight for 3 minutes of every round. He takes breaks.

Floyd also is not a volume puncher; but Mayweather is the most accurate puncher of any fighter in recent memory. It is not bravado when Money goes on a self-congratulatory diatribe, the stats back it up.

Canelo is not going to out-punch Mayweather. Canelo is not going to out-land Mayweather either. These things will simply just not happen.

What about movement? Can Canelo stalk his opponent, cut off the ring and walk him down until he can land the straight right hand?

Again, I just can't see this happening. We have seen more than enough of Mayweather to know he can fight just as comfortably in the middle of the ring as on the ropes. Look at the De La Hoya fight, or the Cotto fight, or look at the first few rounds before the bizarre ending of the Victor Ortiz fight.

When De La Hoya drives Mayweather back to the ropes, and the crowd cheer with every imagined blow, they might as well be shouting "Ole!" as Floyd ducks and dodges as Oscar gives

Mayweather will happily stand in the pocket, in front of a very heavy hitter, and twist and roll away from one barrage after another. It can be deceptive; when the punches are coming in that fast, it can look like some are hitting their mark, but when you go back again and watch the tape, slow it down, you'll see the truth.

As Mayweather weaves hypnotically infront of his foe, the blows are glancing off elbows, being absorbed by his high shoulders, and the rare glove that manages to find its way to his skull is allowed only the briefest kiss before he has limboed his way out of danger once more.

I'll watch some more Canelo fights in the coming weeks, but right now for me, he's carrying only a puncher's chance. If he can't find the target, no matter how hard he hits, the end result will be all too familiar.

Thursday 29 August 2013

"The harder I practice, the luckier I get"

On his recent publicity tour of China to promote his upcoming bout with Brandon Rios, Manny Pacquiao commented on the devastating KO punch that had floored him so shockingly in his last fight in the quadrology with his nemesis Juan Manuel Marquez. He said:

"I think Marquez just got lucky, he got lucky in that fight."

The notion of the 'lucky punch' is one that comes up frequently in boxing, spilling forth not only in blogs like my own, or from the comments below the line, but also from the commentators, the trainers and even the fighters themselves. Well, the defeated ones anyway.

I've seen people go back and forth over the value of a single punch in a fight. They link to clips, GIFs, still photos, covering multiple angles, dissecting it frame by frame, not unlike Jim Harrison pondering just what happened over there on the grassy knoll.

"He has his eyes closed!" they thunder. "It was just not fair."

Of course, I understand why fighters say this, why Pacquiao would be loathe to say "He just beat me fair and square."* If you're trying to position yourself as the best in the sport, and on the all time great list, a 'lucky shot' could amount to merely an asterisk on a glittering resume that oozes quality all the way from a 2001 IBF Super Bantamweight shot against Lehlo Ledwaba, up to his physical limit at Light-Middleweight when he crushed Antonio Margarito's orbital bone, along with his future career in the sport.

I saw similar accusations of luck hurled at Sergio Martinez for cracking a chin that was thought to be uncrackable, or at Danny Garcia for poleaxing a guy several fans feel would be felled by a particularly stiff wind.

Next time someone throws this lazy accusation out there, there's a simple solution. Watch the fight again. Danny Garcia was loading up on huge counter lefts all night vs Khan, even as Khan sliced and diced his face over the opening 2 rounds. He had a plan, he had faith in it; this was not a man swinging for the fences.

Ditto Juan Manuel Marquez. Watch the fight again. As Pacquiao roared back from his knock down and was chasing Marquez from corner to corner, and adding layer after layer of blood that was gushing from Marquez' broken nose, he still had a plan. He still had faith.

You have a world class, veteran fighter, throwing a looping overhand right that had already sent his opponent to the canvas in an earlier round.

In the end, it reached it's target with the pinpoint accuracy of an Olympic archer.

These are not 'lucky punches.' They're perfect.

---





*To be fair to Manny, he was mainly complimentary and gracious in defeat after losing to Marquez, saying "I have no excuses."

Wednesday 28 August 2013

“You were sick, but now you're well again, and there's work to do.”

A few days after his shocking loss to Jhonny Gonzalez, Abner Mares was all set to sit out the remaining months of 2013, taking a well earned break after swiftly assembling one of the toughest resumes in the sport.

But today, stories emerge that Mares has had a swift change of heart, and instead of putting his feet up on the beach recuperating with his friends and family and enjoying the holiday season with its myriad of dietary delights that would make ever strength and fitness contender, Mr. Mares is ready to get back on the horse and step straight back into action with his old sparring partner.

Is this wise? In all honesty, it's difficult to tell. The things is learned from the all too brief Mares-Gonzalez I (as it can now be called) were that:

1. Jhonny Gonzales could, can and will for a long time be able to knockout anybody in or around his weight class.

2. Abner Mares is a human being, and when hit absolutely flush by a fighter with 47 KOs, he gets put on queer street like everybody else. The fact he got up is a credit to his chin.

These are probably things a lot of more knowledgeable people than I knew before the fight; we didn't need to see it to believe it, no matter how shocking a loss it was. (It's certainly the frontrunner for Upset of the Year right now)

The difficulties with over analyzing first round flash KO victories is that we don't learn too much in those few minutes. Abner Mares and Jhonny Gonzalez are former sparring partners, they have a history, they know each other, they respect each other, and will have both prepared hoping to exploit the weakness in the other man.

Abner Mares did not get a chance to show what he worked at in his training camp, to execute a game plan that has been in genesis in the back of his mind for years.

This is as strong a reason to step into the ring with his foe again, as much as a need for vengeance, or as much as the prideful reflex that is hard-wired into the psyche of all great competitors, whether they are fighters or ballplayers or monopoly fiends.

Is it wise? It's really a question I can't answer until the 2nd, 3rd, 4th round when we see what Mares has up his sleeve.

Is it admirable? Undoubtedly.


Tuesday 27 August 2013

"Look around. There are no enemies here. There's just good, old-fashioned rivalry."

So rumours have begun to suggest that a 'Battle of Brooklyn' will take place on the undercard of Khan-Alexander, as Paulie Malignaggi and Zab Judah will face off on December 7th.

On the face of things, it could be tempting to say 'Hey, they're both coming off losses, who gives a shit!' as I'm sure many commenters below the cut will be too quick to point out.

Such thinking is brainless.

This would be a interesting, well-matched, well-promoted meaningful fight for both fighters. While Judah is coming off a loss to still unbeaten Danny Garcia, he showed that he was no longer the Tin Man in search of a heart, as he dragged himself up off the canvas to roar back and give as good as he got in the championship rounds.

Malignaggi was the sacrificial lamb who was meant to be steamrolled by the Adrien Broner express, but instead stood firm and while he did not derail the hype train that follows 'The Problem,' he looked impressive as he threw a spanner in the works, lasting the 12 rounds and being understandably miffed that he didn't manage to get at least a draw on the cards.

A loss is a loss. In every sport, almost all players and all teams lose, and lose on a regular basis. Boxing is different, and one loss can amount to the end of a career in some eyes. Not only in the glare of fickle fans, but the fighters themselves can question the desire to go on once their elusive 0 has been stripped from their record. 

If Malignaggi and Judah were coming off of wins against no-name opposition, would this fight be more mouth-watering? 

No.

Let's see what two guys who just overperformed in tight losses do against each other, both hungry to add one of those final digits onto their win column. The loss column is not so important; just ask Jhonny Gonzalez.

Wednesday 21 August 2013

“And though you think the world is at your feet, it can rise up and tread on you.”

Seth Mitchell and Chris Arreola will be teeing off on each other in a few weeks, and the general consensus online seems to be towards a fairly one-sided victory.

Arreola is (again) motivated with (again) a point to prove. He is what he is. A damn fun to watch heavyweight, with the body of a modern heavyweight.

To the outside viewer who will see these two fighters stood side by side at the weigh-in their could be no doubt as to the winner: Who are you picking? The chiseled Hercules with the freshly buzzed dome, or the chubby guy whose whose nose looks like it must've been broken damn in every single one of his 35 contests? Looks can be deceiving.

Arreola is a fighter by heart, by nature. Mitchell is a hell of an athlete, but there lies the difference.

As one of the burgeoning trend of Heavies who have segued late into boxing via other sporting pursuits, he bears the same massive athletic advantages and the same pugilistic deficiencies. A blown up Cruiserweight in Jonathon Banks was able to calmly step back from the Mitchell express train, clip him with a left, and derail his career progress right there and then.

Although Mitchell won a tepid rematch with Banks, he had already done his damage. He'd placed a glowing red target above his head, or perhaps a rotating neon dollar sign.

While plenty of heavies may be wary to step into the firing line of Deontay Wilder's outrageously powerful overhand right, many would jump at the chance to chop down the former Wolverine football player.

Arreola should stop this one, and stop this one early. Mitchell is committed to the sport, and he is not taking any easy touches. After Banks got to him, many a lesser man would've packed up his bags and found something else to do for a living, like Nathan Cleverly is currently contemplating and he has been a full-time boxer since his teens.

So in 5 years time, I hope Mitchell is doing well for himself on another adventure, and I'm sure Arreola will be motivated again for one last run at the title.



Tuesday 23 July 2013

"Experience: that most brutal of teachers. But you learn, my God do you learn."

So the much mooted Carl Froch v George Groves match-up is set to be confirmed today

Frochs's resume is one of the best in the sport, with multiple victories over world level operators, with his only non-avenged loss coming to Andre Ward, who is without a shadow of a doubt the #1 fighter at Super Middleweight. There can be little debate that Froch is #2 in the division.

Groves win over DeGale is still his most impressive, and DeGale's stop-start career since then has taken a little bit of a sheen off of that win. In the 2 years since, Groves easily decisioned the hollowed shell of Glen Johnson, and knocked off a bunch of tomato cans.

Froch has a tremendous chin, but throughout his career from domestic to world level, Froch has shipped some heavy heavy shots. Jermain Taylor rocked Froch badly, and floored him for the first time back in 2009. In his last fight with Kessler, Froch took the kind of shots that would usually result in the Dane's hand being raised.

But not many chins are uncrackable, Shane Mosley aside. Paul Williams had a granite chin. Then along came Sergio Martinez.

George Groves, like his stablemate David Haye, is an excellent finisher. Once he finds that shot that snaps your head back, he is going to do everything within his power to stop the fight then and there. The major warning sign on Groves' record was his skin-of-the-teeth victory over Kenny Anderson. Groves was hurt, and while his willingness and preference to go toe to toe to fight his way out of a hole is both admirable and entertaining, if he tries to take a similarly naive approach with Froch it will be lights out early for the young pretender.

Can Froch take Groves' best shot? Surely. Can Groves eat many of those awkward, piston-like straight shots that the Cobra throws from his waist? Probably not.

Don't be surprised if Groves goes the way of Lucien Bute, albeit with a little more resistance.


Sunday 21 July 2013

“Ah! There is nothing like staying at home, for real comfort.”

The online boxing fan community is often up in arms about the unwillingness of many fighters to fight outside of their own comfort zone. If you want to fight Andre Ward, better get on that bridge to Oakland. Fancy a trip to sunny St. Louis? Sign up to fight Devon Alexander.

We diminish fighters who have chosen to stay at home. Calzaghe ruled the roost in the UK, aside from a twilight foray over the Atlantic to pick up (in retrospect) his career best win against Bernard Hopkins, and a weekend break to dissect the corpse of Roy Jones Jr.

After watching Derek Chisora v Malik Scott, you have to understand why a fighter would not go begging cap in hand to fight you on your own turf. Scott amassed a record of 35-0-1 on his home shores, over a 13 year period to position himself on the fringes of the division. His resume lacks any kind of breakout win, so Scott and his team chose to gamble on Chisora, a name, but a name who had dropped 4  of his last 6 fights.

Scott was, is, and will never be a power puncher, instead jabbing his way to victory from the outside. Why would such a fighter, choose a step up fight in another continent against a durable opponent he had little to no chance of stopping?

Malik Scott found himself in a terrible position.

From the moment he was chopped down to the canvas by Chisora's clubbing right, Scott was lucid, in control, and sensible. He got into a crouched position ready to rise, he looked to his corner to signal he was just fine, and he stared back at the referee issuing the count in his face. He must've seen a face he thought he could trust, as Scott patiently took advantage of the 10 seconds rest he had before resuming the battle and going back to his game plan.

He stepped up at 9. The referee called the fight off. He had been knocked out.

Never box abroad. A flash knockdown is a knockout when you're in the box seat.

Sunday 3 March 2013

"If You Screw Up in Boxing, It's Your Ass."

When you watch a fighter with legitimate, bone-shuddering power in either fist, you enter into another sporting realm. You cannot get a walk-off home run in the middle innings. You cannot see a buzzer beater rip out a team's heart at anytime but the final minute. The shocking one punch KO is the nuclear bomb of the world of sport . It is begrudgingly admired, and is often followed by a sense that things will never be the same again.

And so as Liverpool-based heavyweight prospect David Price stepped into the ring last month, in front of a packed out Echo Arena, we expected to be dazzled by a shot, that while perhaps not heard around the world, would certainly send throngs of scousers onto the streets knowing they had witnessed something unique, something special

And now we know, of course they did.