"Everyone has a plan, until they get punched in the mouth." Mike Tyson
While 'The One' is the fight most sports fans are looking forward to this weekend, the B-side of this PPV card is probably the one that has hardcore boxing fans salivating.
We have that rare fight, where the two best guys in a weight division are actually fighting each other. I know, I can't believe it either.
Whoever has their hand raised after that Garcia Matthysse fight will be undoubtedly the best fighter currently operating at 140 lbs, and will also be in prime position for a career high payday as one of Floyd Mayweather's next opponents.
Garcia is making the right noises. He says he's going to take away Matthysse's power. This is exactly how Matthysse will be beaten in the future. Think of Bernard Hopkins fighting Kelly Pavlik, or Antonio Tarver, or anybody. He works out a way to win, taking away his opponents strength with movement and footwork and spoiling and fouling.
As previously noted, in the first round of Matthysse's last fight, Lamont Peterson was doing a very good job of making Lucas miss by wide margins with his power shots, and making it look rather easy. If he could've kept up such a performance for more than 3 minutes, Matthysse would've undoubtedly begun to tire from wasting energy on thin air.
Danny Garcia has a dynamite counter left hook, that waxed Amir Khan and finished off Erik Morales in their rematch. Other than that, nothing about Garcia is flashy.
He is slow. So slow that in their first fight, a frankly fat and old Erik Morales took some time out at the start of the 9th round to make fun of him.
He gets hit. Amir Khan tagged Garcia repeatedly near the start of their fight and was pitching a shut out until Danny changed things with the left hook counter he had been committing to all night.
Such a strategy would be far too risky against the hard punching Argentine. Garcia cannot absorb these punches, and I don't think Garcia can even risk trading punches with Matthysse. There is just too big a differential in their power. Matthysse's medium range, lunging and looping hooks are Tyson-esque in their power, if not their accuracy.
Prediction: Having written on this subject a few weeks ago, it should be of no surprise that I'm going for Lucas Matthysse by KO. I just don't see Garcia being disciplined or slick enough to stay away from the big shots for 12 rounds, and if he decides to go to war early, expect an early finish. Garcia is smarter than that, so I would expect a finish somewhere in the middle rounds, 4-6.
Bet: The over-under total rounds to be Under 8.5 at odds of 4/5 with some bookmakers. Both fighters can bang, with Matthysse having a 86% KO percentage, and all but one of his 32 KO victims having been taken out inside 9 rounds. Similarly, all but 1 of Garcia's 16 KOs have occurred inside 9 rounds.
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